Thursday, 26 November 2015

India is raising and growing. There's a lot of euphoria in the world on India shining and Modi Flying sorry I meant modifying Indian overall perspective The question is at what rate India should grow as to become a prosperous developed India. A simple math would help you to understand where India is currently and where we need to grow. Current Population of India--------------------- 1,290,144,618 Current GDP of India --------------------------- USD 1,932,636,637,764 Current GDP per Capita-------------------------USD 1498 That means an average Indian is earning only USD 1498 every year to live his\her life. In terms of INR, an average Indian earns 97,370 every year which is roughly RS 8114 every month. Every nation strives hard to increase the life expectancy, education and income levels of its citizens. India ranks a dismally low 135 in the Human Development Ranking wrt China which is ranked at 91. Whether we have an NDA or UPA, the expectation from the government is straight and simple. We want our parents to live longer, children to have higher education and a higher income from our jobs. Every person in the world aspires for these 3 things. Now can an average Indian get these things in a mere Rs 8114 a month is the question. Simple Math isn’t it?? We have to grow as a country with equal opportunity for all our citizens, it’s a very daunting task and even the Gods will deter in this endurance. An average Indian would require minimum RS 50,000 monthly to fulfil his basic needs i.e. educate his children, pay utilities, own a car, buy a home, go for vacation abroad, pay his credit card bills and save some money. I know you must be thinking, I’m crazy that how on earth a RS 50,000 salary can fill this tall order and whether these needs are anything but basic. But this is the minimum an average Indian should have, if we call ourselves civilized and developed in the 21st century Assuming that Indian population grows at 1.2% annually, we will have 1,369,433,531 people in 2020. With per capita income of Rs 600,000 i.e. USD 10,000 annually, we need a GDP of 13,694,335,310,000.00 i.e. USD 13.7 trillion In five years, if we need a 13.7 trillion dollar economy to feed our population, we have to grow at 48% annually. Tats highly impossible. Let’s reduce the per capita income to 25,000 pm or 300,000 pa which is USD 5000 pa. To need a $6.8 trillion economy by 2020, we will have to grow at 29% annually. Now again this is next to impossible. Let’s again reduce the per capita income to Rs 12,500 per month or USD 3.4 trillion. To achieve 3.4 trillion dollar economy by 2020, our economy has to grow at 12% CAGR If India grows at 12%, an average Indian will earn only Rs 12500 per month and just can pay his rent or just eat. He\she cannot do many things which a developed nation citizen would do. Let’s make the math little more detailed. India has 63.6% adult population and 36.4 dependent population. Total Population 1.3 billion Adult Population (working) 871 million Dependent population 459 million Projected Economy 3.4 trillion Per capita Income USD 3930.81 p.a roughly RS 19,000 per month. That’s still not enough to fulfill a billion aspirations. India is currently growing at 7% annually. We need to achieve a lot more and much faster. We might be doctors, engineers, CA, lawyers anything, but please remember 13% of India has no food and shelter and 36.4% Indians don’t work. So if we combine the two, we have close to 50% who have to be fed by the remaining 50%. India to become a developed nation requires lot of effort by all of us. It’s not a small job and it would take years together to build India into a healthy India. Just few people earning crores and lakhs will not solve our problems. We need more and more people to join our workforce or pursue entrepreneurship to make India a Golden Bird of the 21st Century.